…Fixes oil output target at 2.06mbpd for 2026, adopts 1.8mbpd budget benchmark
…Sets oil price at $64 per barrel, exchange rate at ₦1,512/$
…Endorses $100m Youth Investment Loan, $50m Yobe Agriculture Development Fund
By Nasir Kura
The Federal Executive Council (FEC), presided over by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), detailing Nigeria’s macroeconomic outlook, revenue expectations and spending priorities over the next three years.
Briefing State House correspondents after Wednesday’s meeting, Minister of Budget and National Planning Mr Atiku Bagudu said the framework was jointly presented by the Budget Office of the Federation and the ministry following extensive economic and fiscal analyses.
The minister explained that the MTEF introduced a significant innovation by separating target oil production levels from the more conservative benchmark production figures used for fiscal planning.
He said for 2026, the FEC adopted a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, but opted to base fiscal projections on a safer benchmark of 1.8 million barrels per day. The oil price was set at $64 per barrel, while the exchange rate was fixed at ₦1,512 to the dollar for budget purposes. Inflation is projected at an average of 18 per cent for the year.
He said based on these assumptions, total revenue accruing to the federation in 2026 is estimated at ₦50.74 trillion, to be shared among the three tiers of government — ₦22.6 trillion for the federal government, ₦16.3 trillion for states and ₦11.85 trillion for local governments. When revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including ₦4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total Federal Government revenue is projected at ₦34.33 trillion, representing a ₦6.55 trillion (16 per cent) decline compared to the 2025 budget estimate.
On expenditures, statutory transfers are projected at about ₦3 trillion, debt servicing at ₦10.91 trillion, while non-debt recurrent spending — covering personnel costs and overheads — is estimated at ₦15.27 trillion. The fiscal deficit for 2026 is set at ₦20.1 trillion, equivalent to 3.61 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
The MTEF projects nominal GDP of over ₦690 trillion in 2026, rising to ₦890.6 trillion by 2028. Non-oil GDP is expected to grow from ₦550.7 trillion to ₦871.3 trillion within the period, while oil GDP is forecast to expand from ₦557.4 trillion to ₦893.5 trillion. Economic growth for 2026 is projected at 4.6 per cent.
Bagudu said President Tinubu is confident that with rising macroeconomic stability and faithful execution of the MTEF, Nigeria will achieve stronger and more resilient economic growth over the medium term.
He said FEC also considered ministerial submissions before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling (MFTEC) to guide federal spending and reinforce fiscal discipline.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, said the FEC approved a $100 million African Development Bank loan to support the Nigeria Youth Investment Fund, targeted at entrepreneurs aged 18 to 35 years, especially operators of small and medium-scale enterprises.
HZe said the council also endorsed $50 million funding from the Islamic Development Bank for an integrated agricultural development programme in Yobe State, aimed at enhancing food production, improving rural livelihoods and strengthening national food security.
The minister said President Tinubu commended cabinet members for advancing the Renewed Hope Agenda, noting that recent economic data indicated sustained resilience, with GDP growth of 3.89 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, moderating inflation and strong sectoral performance in agriculture and industry.
He said the President, however, observed that growth remains below his administration’s seven per cent annual target, which he considers necessary to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty.
He, therefore, directed all Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) to prioritise capital spending on projects that generate jobs, stimulate productivity and deliver tangible development outcomes, while the economic management team was mandated to streamline those priorities for his final approval.
